US Solar Experts Raise Possibility of Extended Solar Minimum; Long Live the Contesting Low Bands?

By Jamie Dupree NS3T  radio-sport.net 
Posted June 18, 2011

Even as the sun has shown signs of life in the last six months, a new report from the U.S. National Solar Observatory raises the question of whether the next solar cycle might be even less active than many had been forecasting in recent years.

In other words, it could bring on an extended period of solar inactivity - bad for the higher HF bands like 10 and 15 meters, but great news for the low bands on 80 and 160 meters.

A joint report issued by the NSO and the Air Force Research Laboratory found "that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all."

“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” said Dr. Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory.

“But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”

The results were announced this past week at a solar physics gathering of the American Astronomical Society in New Mexico - as phrases like "Maunder Minimum" were tossed around by those with expertise about the sun.

For those unfamiliar with the Maunder Minimum, that was a period bettween 1645-1715 in which there were almost no sunspots.

If that were to happen again for an extended period of time, it would certainly have a dramatic impact on amateur radio contesting, which recently saw a two year period where the low bands were intensely active, while contacts on the higher bands became a struggle for many.

In one paper presented this past week, Dr. Hill said by now, the signs of new Cycle 25 should have been evident, but no real evidence is there.

"This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all," Dr. Hill explained.

A second study titled, "A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor," raised questions as to whether the future of the sun will even include sunspots, with a third also raising questions about sunspot - even raising the question as to whether or not the sunspot cycle will simply end, like in the Maunder Minimum.

"Whither Goes Cycle 24?" was the title of that third paper.

"This could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades," said Dr. Hill. "That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

And ham radio contesting.