Solar Experts Still Unsure About Sunspot Activity Levels For New Year; NASA Trims Prediction

By Jamie Dupree NS3T  radio-sport.net 
Posted January 3, 2011

As we move into 2011, the good news about 2010 was that there was more activity on the sun, which translated into more band openings and better propagation for ham radio contesters.

The bad news is that experts continue to reduce their predictions for the strength of the next solar cycle.

The latest forecast from U.S. Government scientists is for a peak average of 64 sunspots, now expected in July of 2013.

That is well down from the prediction made three years ago by the same scientists, who were forecasting a peak in the range of 130-140 sunspots.

As you can see from the graph below, American scientists had thought the solar cycle would have turned upwards more by now - as you can see from the red line projection below.

Spotless Days Take Huge Drop In 2010

After record solar conditions which resulted in 266 days without sunspots in 2008 and 260 more in 2009, the final numbers of 2010 were a big relief for hams.

There were only 51 days in 2010 where no sunspots were observed - just 14% - compared to over 70% in 2008 and 2009.

The spotless number made it to 51 only because of a late rash of spotless days in December. The six days in a row was the longest dry spell since back in May of 2010.

While the lower spotless number was very good news for ham radio enthusiasts, the raw number of sunspots has not been large by any means, so openings on 15 meters - and especially 10 meters - have not been as strong as many might remember from the past.

Usually, a solar minimum lasts for 15 months - but this time - it has already gone for over two years.