2009 Not Offering Contesters Imminent Hope For High Bands; Solar Cycle 24 Still Lagging

By Jamie Dupree NS3T  radio-sport.net 
Posted April 4, 2009

After a record year in terms of a lack of sunspots last year, U.S. government forecasters are once again altering their predictions, as contest propagation on the high bands continues to suffer.

"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center, as quoted in a release from the U.S. space agency NASA.

That's a bit different than Hathaway's evaluation of just a few months ago, when in early November he said confidently that "I think solar minimum is behind us."

But now NASA admits that assumptions that the solar cycle had "hit bottom" in 2008 may not be correct.

"Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower," said an April 1 NASA release. "As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%)."

While the recent CQ WPX SSB Contest did bring some welcome openings on 10 meters, the high bands are not producing anywhere near what had been expected by this date in terms of propagation.

"Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next," said NASA's "Deep Solar Minimum" report.

"Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum will end and how big the next solar maximum will be."

In November of 2008, NASA confidently reported "New Sunspot Cycle Begins."

Ten months before that in January 2008, US government solar researchers cited a new sunspot as "clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle."

Those two predictions, and many others on Solary Cycle 24 have not turned out to be correct.

The website spaceweather.com reports that since 2004, there have been 590 spotless days on the sun.

"The fact that the ongoing solar minimum has already racked up 590+ spotless days with no end in sight tells us that it (this solar minimum) is much deeper and longer than average."

Spaceweather.com reports that the typical solar minimum goes 485 days between spotless days on the sun.

"The sun is blank - no sunspots," has been the almost constant refrain on the small photo of the sun on spaceweather.com.

In recognition of that, the site has started a new counter that details how long it has been since the last sunspot appeared.

As for when the new solar cycle will truly begin, Australian solar expert David Archibald recently updated his prediction, moving the end of Solar Cycle 23 to July of 2009.

His prediction is for a "weak ramp up of Solar Cycle 24."

At this point, that effect on 10 and 15 meters might even be worth it.