CQ WW CW 2008: Where Is Solar Cycle 24? Bad Band Conditions Continue to Plague Major Tests

By Jamie Dupree NS3T  radio-sport.net 
Posted November 17, 2008

Back on January 4th of this year, US government researchers hailed the start of Solar Cycle 24, citing a new sunspot that was described in a press release as "clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle."

“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring,” said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Over 10 months later, ham radio contesters are still waiting for the fruits of a new cycle, as 10 and 15 meters remained depressed for many competitors in the recent CQ WW SSB Contest, making 20 meters a very crowded band.

"The sun continues to be uncooperative, occasionally teasing us with a new spot or two, but propagation is totally inconsistent day to day," says John Crovelli W2GD, who will be at P40W for CQ WW CW again this year.

"With luck we might have one sunspot to liven things up on WW weekend, at least make 15M usable on the North/South path for us," Crovelli added, saying that 10 meters is "completely unpredictable."

"We can all hope that some sunspots return," said Randy Thompson K5ZD in his 3830, "because (I'm) not sure 20 meters can handle this level of crowding."

"What can one say about yet another contest without sunspots?" opined Jim Stahl K8MR, who will try to force open the ionosphere from PJ2T in the Carribean in CQ WW CW.

The US space agency NASA had most recently forecast a solar minimum in March of this year, but band conditions haven't seemed to improve much since WPX.

So are we at the bottom on the cycle yet?

"We are right in the middle of it," says Australian solar expert David Archibald. "Solar minimum could have been last month, or it could still be six months off."

Archibald wrote a paper in September of this year that said the solar minimum might even slip to July of 2009.

"That in itself doesn't matter any more, because what we have seen to date means that (Cycle 24) is going to be weak, very weak" Archibald told radio-sport.net.

That would mean an upswing in band conditions, but nothing evidently that would match the last two solar cycles in terms of DX propagation.

"I think solar minimum is behind us," said sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in a NASA release.

"We're still years away from solar maximum and, in the meantime, the sun is going to have some more quiet stretches," Hathaway added.

That was certainly demonstrated in October, when on 20 different days, there were were no sunspots at all. November has had a few of those as well.

"A large number of spotless days means that the following cycle is going to be late, and the later a cycle is, the weaker it will be," solar expert Warwick Hughes wrote on his blog.

"A Dalton Minimum-like outcome is now inevitable," is Archibald's headline for a new paper he will have out in January.

That's the name given to a period of low solar activity between 1790 and 1830.

For now, US government researchers aren't embracing the idea of a Dalton repeat. We'll see in coming months where the Sun decides to go.

"Hope the sunspots cooperate a little more for next year to help 20 meters out during the day," said Mike Wetzel W9RE on 3830. "

"It was enough to make one quit."